March Madness Day 1 Preview
9 Creighton vs 8 Louisville - Pat Kelsey’s first year at Louisville ended with a loss in the ACC championship game. No matter what happens from this point on, he has turned this program around, and I think everyone in the community is happy with how this season has turned out. He is facing one of the few coaches who has been to the tournament 10+ times. Both teams have good players, but Louisville probably has the edge in the backcourt with Chucky Hepburn, while Creighton has a huge advantage down low with the 7'1" Ryan Kalkbrenner. This is a true pick-em game, so you can’t go wrong either way. Creighton is more likely to make a deeper run and beat the 1 seed in the 2nd round than Louisville is, so I’ll probably end up picking them in most of my brackets.
13 High Point vs 4 Purdue - This is a very trendy upset pick because Purdue has lost recently as a high seed. I strongly disagree; Purdue is better everywhere. High Point does get a lot of points in the paint, which is Purdue's weakness, but I think Painter will have his guys ready to go for this one, with their history in first-weekend games well documented. One thing of note is that High Point's coach comes from the Pinto coaching tree, so he should know what he is doing for the most part, but I believe the talent gap will be too large for them to overcome.
14 Montana vs 3 Wisconsin - Wisconsin has to basically go on the road for a game against Montana in Denver. This game has upset written all over it. Montana won their conference tournament to get the auto bid, but what they did in the non-conference isn’t necessarily something to write home about, with a 30-point loss to Oregon, a 35-point loss to Tennessee, and another 30-point loss to Northern Iowa. I just don’t think they have what it takes to beat this Wisconsin team unless Wisconsin is just done after the Big Ten tournament, where they lost in the final to Michigan. I expect John Tonje to have another big game as they win this game by double digits.
16 SIUE vs 1 Houston - SIUE makes the tournament for the first time ever after winning the Ohio Valley auto bid, but this will be a learning experience for them as they are likely to lose by 20+ to a Houston team that is championship or bust.
16 Alabama St vs 1 Auburn - 1-seed Auburn plays a former assistant, Tony Madlock, after winning a thriller in the First Four. Auburn hasn’t looked the best recently, losing 3 out of its last 4, but still remains on the 1 line for the tournament. They will have way too much depth for Alabama St to handle in this game.
12 McNeese vs 5 Clemson - Will Wade has his boys rolling into March to play a Clemson team that, in my opinion, is very highly overseeded in this tournament, which I think they did to justify putting North Carolina into the field. If McNeese can hold their own on the boards, they will win this game. They score more than Clemson, so the glass will be the key factor in this game. This game falls on Schieffelin and Lakhin for Clemson. If they do what they are supposed to do on the glass, then Clemson will win. But McNeese is coming in hot, winning their last 11 games, so expect a great game Thursday afternoon between these two.
11 VCU vs 6 BYU - This will most likely be the best game of the first round. The committee has not learned about giving VCU a low seed like this. BYU is a good team that got a bad draw. This is a prime example of why we need to expand the tournament and play the first round on campus. BYU has the deeper roster with a better offense, but VCU has the best player. If VCU can run them off the 3-point line, they will have a lot of success in this game. If BYU is getting good looks and knocking them down, they will be a tough out for anyone, even 1 and 2 seeds.
8 Georgia vs 9 Gonzaga - Georgia's best year in over a decade ends in an awful draw in the first round against a program that has been a mainstay in the tournament and the second weekend of the tournament for the better part of the last decade. Georgia will have to bring the same intensity they showed all season if they want to give Gonzaga a game. I’m excited to see how future first-round pick in the upcoming draft Asa Newell performs in his first tournament action after averaging 14 & 7 as a freshman in the best conference of all time. Graham Ike will be tasked with slowing him down, and it will not be his first rodeo in the tournament, marking his third appearance.
15 Wofford vs 2 Tennessee - Wofford made the tournament after an improbable run through the Southern Conference from the 6 seed. We will see if they have enough to take down the team that just played in the championship of historically the hardest conference of all time. Tennessee has been here way too many times and has way too much depth for Wofford to handle.
10 Arkansas vs 7 Kansas - Two Hall of Fame coaches go at it in the first round. This is what March is all about. Coach Cal is in a down year after leaving Kentucky for Arkansas, and Bill Self, who normally does well in high school recruiting, is struggling to adapt to the transfer portal while developing at the same time. Arkansas lost their best player earlier this season and weathered the storm, while it seems that Kansas hasn’t found a lineup that works for them yet. I would lean towards Kansas, but I wouldn’t be surprised at any outcome of this game, whether it be a blowout or an overtime game.
13 Yale vs 4 Texas A&M - Yale makes the tournament for back-to-back seasons after pulling off an upset against Texas A&M conference mate Auburn. I don’t see Yale doing that this time. They lack the size and scoring to compete with Texas A&M. When you go into the game knowing this, you need to be almost perfect with the basketball and stretch out your defense to create more turnovers. I don’t think they can win this game playing Yale basketball. Texas A&M will have way too much Wade Taylor and will pull this one out.
11 Drake vs 6 Missouri - Drake gets to the tournament after winning the Missouri Valley to face Missouri. Drake has wins over Miami, FAU, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State in the non-conference and ended the season 30-3, and would not have gotten an automatic bid if they didn’t win their tournament, which annoys me. Missouri had a great season in their own right with a win over the then #1 team in the country, Kansas, but they have struggled against other good teams, especially in the non-conference, with losses against the only two tournament teams they played. Drake will get this one done and keep Mitchell at bay.
10 Utah State vs 7 UCLA - A west coast battle in the first round. Utah State is a good team, but they are playing a coach with a great first-weekend resume in the tournament. UCLA will have the best player on the court, and Utah State is coming off a blowout loss in the semifinals to Colorado State, who might be the hottest team in basketball. I think UCLA pulls this one out with Utah State struggling to score near the basket and dealing with UCLA's size in the frontcourt.
5 Omaha vs 2 St. John’s - Omaha is a very good team to be on the 15 line, but that shows how little the committee actually watched basketball this season. However, Rick Pinto has one of the best teams in the history of St. John’s that is primed for a deep run this March. St. John’s should win this game by double digits behind Scott and Luis.
12 UC San Diego vs 5 Michigan - A tough draw for a Big Ten champion. UC San Diego has one of the better offenses in the country, but Michigan has a good coach, so I think they will be ready. For UC San Diego, they match up well with Michigan everywhere on the court; their duo of Tait-Jones and McGhie is among the best in the country. I don’t know if they will pull it out, but they will keep it close. Goldin will need to take over this game and impose his size early on for Michigan to ever feel comfortable.
14 UNC Wilmington vs 3 Texas Tech - UNC Wilmington made it after winning the Coastal Athletic Conference auto bid over Delaware. I think they should be on the 15 line, and I think Texas Tech should have been a 4 seed, but either way, J.T. Toppin will lead Texas Tech to a double-digit victory.
